The effects of weather and climate change on dengue

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Effectiveness of the AS03-Adjuvanted Vaccine against Pandemic Influenza Virus A/(H1N1) 2009 – A Comparison of Two Methods; Germany, 2009/10

During the autumn wave of the pandemic influenza virus A/(H1N1) 2009 (pIV) the German population was offered an AS03-adjuvanted vaccine. The authors compared results of two methods calculating the effectiveness of the vaccine (VE). The test-negative case-control method used data from virologic surveillance including influenza-positive and negative patients. An innovative case-series methodology explored data from all nationally reported laboratory-confirmed influenza cases. The proportion of reported cases occurring in vaccinees during an assumed unprotected phase after vaccination was compared with that occurring in vaccinees during their assumed protected phase. The test-negative case-control method included 1,749 pIV cases and 2,087 influenza test-negative individuals of whom 6 (0.3%) and 36 (1.7%), respectively, were vaccinated. The case series method included data from 73,280 cases. VE in the two methods was 79% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 35–93%; P = 0.007) and 87% (95% CI = 78–92%; P<0.001) for individuals less than 14 years of age and 70% (95% CI = −45%–94%, P = 0.13) and 74% (95% CI = 64–82%; P<0.001) for individuals above the age of 14. Both methods yielded similar VE in both age groups; and VE for the younger age group seemed to be higher

Early onset lung cancer, cigarette smoking and the SNP309 of the murine double minute-2 (MDM2) gene

The polymorphism SNP309 (rs2279744) in the promoter region of the MDM2 gene has been shown to alter protein expression and may play a role in the susceptibility to lung cancer. The MDM2 protein is a key inhibitor of p53 and several mechanisms of MDM2/p53 interactions are presently known: modulating DNA-repair, cell-cycle control, cell growth and apoptosis

Attentional Window Set by Expected Relevance of Environmental Signals

The existence of an attentional window—a limited region in visual space at which attention is directed—has been invoked to explain why sudden visual onsets may or may not capture overt or covert attention. Here, we test the hypothesis that observers voluntarily control the size of this attentional window to regulate whether or not environmental signals can capture attention. We have used a novel approach to test this: participants eye-movements were tracked while they performed a search task that required dynamic gaze-shifts. During the search task, abrupt onsets were presented that cued the target positions at different levels of congruency. The participant knew these levels. We determined oculomotor capture efficiency for onsets that appeared at different viewing eccentricities. From these, we could derive the participant's attentional window size as a function of onset congruency. We find that the window was small during the presentation of low-congruency onsets, but increased monotonically in size with an increase in the expected congruency of the onsets. This indicates that the attentional window is under voluntary control and is set according to the expected relevance of environmental signals for the observer's momentary behavioral goals. Moreover, our approach provides a new and exciting method to directly measure the size of the attentional window

Meteorologically estimated exposure but not distance predicts asthma symptoms in schoolchildren in the environs of a petrochemical refinery: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Community concern about asthma prompted an epidemiological study of children living near a petrochemical refinery in Cape Town, South Africa. Because of resource constraints and the complexity of refinery emissions, neither direct environmental measurements nor modelling of airborne pollutants was possible. Instead a meteorologically derived exposure metric was calculated with the refinery as the putative point source. The study aimed to determine whether (1) asthma symptom prevalences were elevated compared to comparable areas in Cape Town and (2) whether there was an association between asthma symptom prevalences and the derived exposure metric.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was carried out of all consenting school children aged 11 to 14 years attending schools in a defined area, utilizing the International Study of Asthma and Allergy in Childhood (ISAAC) written and video questionnaires. Information was collected on potential confounders, e.g. parental history of atopic disease, active and passive smoking by the participant, birth order, number of children in the home and distance from a major road. The exposure metric combined residential distance of each child from the refinery with a wind vector in the form of wind speed, wind direction and proportion of the year blown.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2,361 children from 17 schools met the criteria for inclusion. In multivariate analysis, meteorologically estimated exposure (MEE), but not simple distance from the refinery, was positively associated with having to take an inhaler to school [odds ratio per interquartile range (OR) 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.40], and with a number of video elicited asthma symptoms, including recent waking with wheezing (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.06-1.66) and frequent wheezing at rest (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.05 - 1.54). Symptom prevalences were higher than in other areas of the city, with frequent waking with wheezing being in great excess (OR 8.92, 95% CI 4.79-16.63).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results support the hypothesis of an increased prevalence of asthma symptoms among children in the area as a result of refinery emissions and provide a substantive basis for community concern. The methodology also provides a low cost means of testing hypotheses about point source pollutant effects on surrounding populations of children.</p

Genome-Wide Scan on Total Serum IgE Levels Identifies FCER1A as Novel Susceptibility Locus

High levels of serum IgE are considered markers of parasite and helminth exposure. In addition, they are associated with allergic disorders, play a key role in anti-tumoral defence, and are crucial mediators of autoimmune diseases. Total IgE is a strongly heritable trait. In a genome-wide association study (GWAS), we tested 353,569 SNPs for association with serum IgE levels in 1,530 individuals from the population-based KORA S3/F3 study. Replication was performed in four independent population-based study samples (total n = 9,769 individuals). Functional variants in the gene encoding the alpha chain of the high affinity receptor for IgE (FCER1A) on chromosome 1q23 (rs2251746 and rs2427837) were strongly associated with total IgE levels in all cohorts with P values of 1.85×10−20 and 7.08×10−19 in a combined analysis, and in a post-hoc analysis showed additional associations with allergic sensitization (P = 7.78×10−4 and P = 1.95×10−3). The “top” SNP significantly influenced the cell surface expression of FCER1A on basophils, and genome-wide expression profiles indicated an interesting novel regulatory mechanism of FCER1A expression via GATA-2. Polymorphisms within the RAD50 gene on chromosome 5q31 were consistently associated with IgE levels (P values 6.28×10−7−4.46×10−8) and increased the risk for atopic eczema and asthma. Furthermore, STAT6 was confirmed as susceptibility locus modulating IgE levels. In this first GWAS on total IgE FCER1A was identified and replicated as new susceptibility locus at which common genetic variation influences serum IgE levels. In addition, variants within the RAD50 gene might represent additional factors within cytokine gene cluster on chromosome 5q31, emphasizing the need for further investigations in this intriguing region. Our data furthermore confirm association of STAT6 variation with serum IgE levels

Efficient CO2-Reducing Activity of NAD-Dependent Formate Dehydrogenase from Thiobacillus sp KNK65MA for Formate Production from CO2 Gas

NAD-dependent formate dehydrogenase (FDH) from Candida boidinii (CbFDH) has been widely used in various CO2 reduction systems but its practical applications are often impeded due to low CO2-reducing activity. In this study, we demonstrated superior CO2-reducing properties of FDH from Thiobacillus sp. KNK65MA (TsFDH) for production of formate from CO2 gas. To discover more efficient CO2-reducing FDHs than a reference enzyme e. CbFDH, five FDHs were selected with biochemical properties and then, their CO2-reducing activities were evaluated. All FDHs including CbFDH showed better CO2-reducing activities at acidic pHs than at neutral pHs and four FDHs were more active than CbFDH in the CO2 reduction reaction. In particular, the FDH from Thiobacillus sp. KNK65IVIA (TsFDH) exhibited the highest CO2-reducing activity and had a dramatic preference for the reduction reaction, i.e., a 84.2-fold higher ratio of CO2 reduction to formate oxidation in catalytic efficiency (k(cat)/K-B) compared to CbFDH. Formate was produced from CO2 gas using TsFDH and CbFDH, and TsFDH showed a 5.8-fold higher formate production rate than CbFDH. A sequence and structural comparison showed that FDHs with relatively high CO2-reducing activities had elongated N- and C-terminal loops. The experimental results demonstrate that TsFDH can be an alternative to CbFDH as a biocatalyst in CO2 reduction systemsope

Angular and Current-Target Correlations in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

Correlations between charged particles in deep inelastic ep scattering have been studied in the Breit frame with the ZEUS detector at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 6.4 pb-1. Short-range correlations are analysed in terms of the angular separation between current-region particles within a cone centred around the virtual photon axis. Long-range correlations between the current and target regions have also been measured. The data support predictions for the scaling behaviour of the angular correlations at high Q2 and for anti-correlations between the current and target regions over a large range in Q2 and in the Bjorken scaling variable x. Analytic QCD calculations and Monte Carlo models correctly describe the trends of the data at high Q2, but show quantitative discrepancies. The data show differences between the correlations in deep inelastic scattering and e+e- annihilation.Comment: 26 pages including 10 figures (submitted to Eur. J. Phys. C

Plastisol Foaming Process. Decomposition of the Foaming Agent, Polymer Behavior in the Corresponding Temperature Range and Resulting Foam Properties

The decomposition of azodicarbonamide, used as foaming agent in PVC - plasticizer (1/1) plastisols was studied by DSC. Nineteen different plasticizers, all belonging to the ester family, two being polymeric (polyadipates), were compared. The temperature of maximum decomposition rate (in anisothermal regime at 5 K min-1 scanning rate), ranges between 434 and 452 K. The heat of decomposition ranges between 8.7 and 12.5 J g -1. Some trends of variation of these parameters appear significant and are discussed in terms of solvent (matrix) and viscosity effects on the decomposition reactions. The shear modulus at 1 Hz frequency was determined at the temperature of maximum rate of foaming agent decomposition, and differs significantly from a sample to another. The foam density was determined at ambient temperature and the volume fraction of bubbles was used as criterion to judge the efficiency of the foaming process. The results reveal the existence of an optimal shear modulus of the order of 2 kPa that corresponds roughly to plasticizer molar masses of the order of 450 ± 50 g mol-1. Heavier plasticizers, especially polymeric ones are too difficult to deform. Lighter plasticizers such as diethyl phthalate (DEP) deform too easily and presumably facilitate bubble collapse